The Davos matrix

Globalization risk in a nutshell means a higher domino-effect. 2011 saw a wild bunch of black swans flocking from environmental and technological disasters like Fukushima and oil tanker spills to societal ones in London, from the environmental and urbanization problems of Liguria and Thailand to the geopolitical ones in Syria and Iran.

Have a look to the World Economic Forum’s matrix of risks (likelihood/impact) across regions and spanning across societal, economic, geopolitical, environmental and technological risks.

The US has a higher risk in cyber attacks and critical systems failure, in line with a higher terrorism likelihood. All regions score high in water and food supply shortage, Europe included. Failure of climate change adaptation score highest in USA, followed by Europe and Asia. Severe income disparity is higher in the Americas compared with Europe and Asia. Pervasive entrenched corruption is higher in South America, Sub-Saharian Africa vs North Africa and ME, the US follow, Europe is less hit and curiously Asia scores low. On chronic fiscal imbalances the US score higher than Europe.

For a global view have a look at the gravity (risk eye of the storm?) map. The diffusion of weapon of mass destruction scores low, as unexpected risks stemming from nanotechnology. Unmanageable inflation and deflation are also estimated to be relatively lower risks than religious fanaticism.

One major stakeholder is missing: populations. Especially when the highest ranking risks are food and water supply shortage…

I am curious to see what Merkel will say at Davos’ opening speech.

2 Responses to “The Davos matrix”

  1. 2 stripedcat
    January 27, 2012 at 22:41

    thank you for taking the berlinromexpress…from melbourne!

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